Could GOP Scupper Iran Talks?
American media outlets claim Tehran should be concerned because the incoming Senators are a series of “hawks” that campaign heavy on escalating the war on Syria, as well as being more hawkish at essentially everything that has to do with Iran.
The media see the new senators as even more hostile toward Iran because of Israel. While some are presenting this as a victory for Benjamin Netanyahu, others wonder how he will be able to balance the US-Israel split in the new political environment.
Still, the media say nuclear talks with Iran is the one thing the Senate can most easily sabotage, as it would likely just take a new round of sanctions aimed specifically at killing the talks to get the job done. Well, in that case, this could be a lost opportunity for both the US government and the European Union – and not Iran.
Into the argument, except for showing more transparency in its civilian nuclear program, Tehran has nothing else to offer but patience and all the time in the world! It is now up to the US government and its European partners to prove that they are serious about the talks AND ready for a final deal beyond which there is no further dispute and tension, no further mistrust, doubt and sabotage, and certainly no further back-stabbing, double-talking, and raw deal.
Media hype notwithstanding, the midterm results could have consequences for US foreign policy, as the deadline for talks on a deal comes in just a few weeks. But these throwback Republicans don’t have what it takes to kill the talks or scare Tehran into signing a deal that is not fair. Here are the big reasons:
1. Because of the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, we live in a very different political world. That’s why unlike his predecessors, Secretary of State John Kerry says Washington is determined to finalize a nuclear deal before the November 24 deadline. He enthusiastically said after the midterm rout, “I want to get this done. Iran is entitled to enjoy nuclear energy for civilian purposes. We believe it is pretty easy to prove to the world that a plan is peaceful.”
2. This week in an important letter to the EU3+3, former EU officials Javier Solana, Ana Palacio, Carl Bildt, Emma Bonino, Jean-Marie Guéhenno, Norbert Röttgen, and Robert Cooper wrote: “We urge the UK, Germany, France, the US, China, Russia and Iran to reach agreement on a comprehensive nuclear deal by the 24 November deadline. Creative technical solutions have been formulated and a deal is within reach – a deal that will peacefully and effectively address proliferation concerns of the EU3+3 over Iran’s nuclear program, while respecting Iranian legitimate aspirations and sovereignty.”
3. Sources close to the Iranian negotiating team say Tehran is ready and the main stumbling block remains to be the removal of all sanctions. So the path ahead with regard to Iran and its position is pretty much clear as well: “With nothing to hide, remove ALL your sanctions to finalize the interim nuclear deal.” Unlike the “raw deal” of the past (2002), however, the political class in Tehran has come to the conclusion that if there is a final deal this time (some officials have their doubts) then it has to be officially endorsed and fully implemented - with no strings attached - by the “governments” and “parliaments” of all parties involved, INCLUDING the US Congress and the Senate, the European Union, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the United Nations Security Council.
4. Both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party need an Iran deal to win the presidential election in 2016. No doubt, they also need Iran to defeat ISIL in Iraq and Syria. So if both parties were to use foreign policy to enhance their political standing at home, the one place they could do it would be Iran.
True, before November 24, we might see some movement within the Congress to put pressure on Iran. This is not surprising; this was their midterm campaign and the dynamics there are kind of colliding. But the diplomatic momentum is good, especially at the European Union. So Republicans (and Democrats) could lose on both domestic and diplomatic fronts if they try to mislead, let alone scupper, the nuclear talks.
Without question, both parties know that factors including the failure of sanctions, the European diplomatic pressures, the ISIL war, and a shift in US focus towards Asia mean diplomacy is the only way forward regarding the situation with Iran. They also know that nothing could hurt them more than an aggressive stance against Iran that failed to achieve its goals.
Source: Fars
