Dynamics of Russian Sanctions with a Focus on LNG and Oil

TEHRAN (Defapress) - It has been four years since the imposition of extensive sanctions against Russia by Western countries. Now is the time to analyze not only the content of these restrictions, but also the structure and decision-making process behind them. The main question is: who and how creates, promotes, and enacts these sanctions?

In this study, the researchers have applied the concept of “norm entrepreneurs”; individuals or groups who, using the media, lobbying, and political support, try to establish a certain behavior as the “norm” in the international community. In the case of sanctions, these actors are called “sanction entrepreneurs”.

Who are the “sanctions entrepreneurs” and how do they work?

These groups include major media outlets (e.g., The Washington Post, The New York Times, Bloomberg), think tanks, politicians, social media activists (e.g., NAFO), and business lobbies. Their main goal is to create a public space that supports sanctions, even to the detriment of their own economies.

The structure of the “sanctions machine” consists of three key components:

1. Information noise generation: the constant dissemination of news and ideas about sanctions, even those that seem impractical, causes them to be “normalized” in public opinion and ultimately increases pressure for their implementation.

2. Professional lobbying by think tanks: providing technical and “documented” solutions to prove the feasibility of new sanctions and to close legal loopholes.

3. Political decision-making: The nexus between media, think tanks, and politicians forms the red zone of the “overflow” of sanctions decisions.

History of LNG and oil sanctions

The US imposed a ban on oil and gas imports in early 2022, pushing Europe towards reducing its dependence. Media outlets such as the Financial Times began writing about “Russia’s Arctic gas ambitions being jeopardised”.

In June 2022, the EU’s sixth package of sanctions banned the transit of Russian LNG from European ports to third countries.

In late 2022 and early 2023, as Russian LNG imports to Europe increased, pro-Ukraine networks (NAFO) and think tanks (such as Poland’s PISM) launched a pressure campaign. As a result, the REPowerEU plan to completely cut off Russian gas was adopted.

November 2023 The United States imposed sanctions on the Arctic LNG 2 project, and the Assistant Secretary of State directly stated: “Our goal is to kill this project.” After that, NOVATEK was forced to reduce production capacity.

In March 2022, the UK, the EU, and Canada banned the import of oil refining technology to Russia. Ukrainian expert networks began to track ways to circumvent the sanctions.

In June 2022, the sixth package of sanctions banned the import of Russian oil and imposed a ban on tanker insurance. This made it difficult for buyers to find alternatives.

In December 2022, a price cap of $60 was imposed on Russian oil.

In mid-2023, the “hunt for the shadow fleet” of Russia began. The European Union banned ships that turn off their positioning systems from entering its ports.

Future scenarios (until 2027)

Analysts predict two main scenarios and consider the “optimistic” scenario (reducing sanctions) unlikely.

Base scenario (high probability):

- Approach: Strengthening existing restrictions without making major qualitative changes.

- Intensification of targeted sanctions against shipping operators associated with NOVATEK and Russian tankers.

- Oil: imposing broad sanctions against companies associated with the “shadow fleet” and intensification of targeted sanctions against tankers.

Pessimistic scenario (escalation):

- Context: High coordination in the G7 and maintaining an anti-Russian political atmosphere.

New measures (LNG and oil):

- Inspection and detention of ships: conducting extralegal inspections of tankers in the Denmark Straits, the English Channel, and other international waters.

- Creation of specialized institutions: Formation of special institutions (under the auspices of the G7 or the EU) to track and identify the “shadow fleet”.

- Sanctions of Chinese parties: Imposition of broad sanctions on Chinese technology suppliers for the Arctic LNG 2 project (as an alternative to American turbines).

- Military missions: Launching naval missions under the NATO or EU flag in the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean under pretexts such as “environment” or “counter-piracy” to counter the shadow fleet.

This study shows that the sanctions process is not only not automatic but also the result of a complex ecosystem of actors who consciously and purposefully seek to restrict the Russian energy industry.