Quincy Institute's Analysis of Amphibious Operations by the US Terrorist Army

TEHRAN (Defapress) - The Washington-based think tank, the Quincy Institute, has challenged the United States' military options against Iran in a strategic assessment, describing the White House as stuck in a severe dilemma. The report reveals that following the inconclusive outcomes of the joint US-Israeli aerial operation, codenamed "Epic Fury", which failed to either destabilize the Iranian government or halt Tehran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, the Pentagon is now weighing limited ground operations to seize Iran's strategic islands in the Persian Gulf. While Washington has deployed over 7,000 new special operations forces to reinforce the 50,000 troops already stationed in the region, Quincy's experts emphasize that this scenario is technically and operationally flawed.

In the first part of this analysis, the scenario of capturing the islands of Abu Musa, the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, and Larak is dissected. Tactically, a traditional amphibious assault is virtually impossible due to the high risk posed by Iran’s anti-ship cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, naval mines, and fast attack crafts; this threat has already forced the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to operate in the Arabian Sea, outside the Persian Gulf. Therefore, an airborne heliborne assault remains the most probable insertion method. However, America's primary challenge would be holding these islands post-capture. Left without fortified shelters and constrained by a limited 15-day logistical sustainability window, American forces would find themselves exposed to relentless, heavy, and precise Iranian missile and drone strikes launched from Qeshm Island and the rugged Zagros coastline. Quincy warns that without seizing the massive Qeshm Island and neutralizing Iran's entire 1,520-mile southern coastline, capturing these smaller islands will do nothing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In the second part, the option of seizing Kharg Island as economic leverage is described as a "costly counter-strategy." Kharg sits just 16 miles off the Iranian mainland, a proximity that cripples American logistical supply lines while bolstering Iran's defensive capabilities. Reports indicate that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has stripped the U.S. of any element of surprise by reinforcing man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) and mining the beaches. Furthermore, the presence of 8,000 civilian residents would make clearing this flat island exceptionally bloody. On the other hand, even assuming a successful capture of Kharg, Iran would not capitulate; utilizing alternative export terminals such as Jask, Lavan, Siri, and Qeshm, Tehran could sustain a critical economic lifeline, especially with global crude prices doubling. Conversely, such an escalation would likely drive Iran to target regional energy infrastructure and desalination plants, assets upon which the West is heavily dependent.

In its conclusion, the think tank reminds the White House of Tehran's historically high resilience against extreme pressure, warning Washington not to fall into the illusion that ground options are a panacea. These military adventures would not only fail to achieve Washington's strategic objectives but would also severely deplete vital resources, undermining U.S. military readiness in the critical Indo-Pacific scene. Ultimately, the report urges the United States government to accept the harsh realities on the ground, cut its losses, and pursue a durable diplomatic solution with Tehran to preserve its global standing and prestige as a superpower.