NATO’s Extreme Weakness in Logistics and Support
TEHRAN (Defapress) - A new report from the UK’s Strategy Council has warned that NATO’s support lines in northern Europe are now extremely vulnerable to sabotage, drone attacks, long-range missiles, and hybrid operations, so that in the event of a potential conflict, these weaknesses could lead to the collapse of combat capability on the front line.
The report stresses that NATO can no longer assume a threat-free environment for the movement of troops, ammunition, and fuel across the continent. The war in Ukraine has proven that support in Europe has become a priority and a permanent objective, and the survival of the military supply chain is as vital as combat capability itself.
The authors of the report identify four major weaknesses: geographical bottlenecks, limited strategic transport capacity, inadequate infrastructure to support large-scale military operations, and the lack of dedicated protection systems for supply routes. The warning comes at a critical juncture for NATO, as the alliance is in the process of rapidly strengthening its eastern front following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while several European countries have openly acknowledged that their ammunition stocks, industrial capacities, and logistics networks are not prepared for a prolonged attrition conflict.
The report recalls that during the Cold War, British planners estimated that a division equipped with four artillery battalions could consume up to 35,000 155mm rounds per day. Although current figures in Ukraine are lower, Western production is still insufficient to sustain a large-scale war in the long term.
NATO’s vulnerability is not limited to the land front, and the analysis highlights critical European infrastructure, including ports, rail networks, energy hubs, and submarine cables. The main concern within NATO is that Russia could use coordinated sabotage campaigns to slow or prevent the movement of reinforcements to the Baltics and northern Europe. In this regard, the report recommends the creation of specialized defense support units, strengthening mobile air defense capabilities, and deploying anti-drone systems specifically to protect convoys, depots, and supply routes.
The debate over Europe’s defense resilience comes as questions grow about Europe’s military dependence on the United States. Experts and UK parliamentary committees have been warning for months that Europe’s capabilities in essential areas such as strategic transport, aerial refueling, intelligence, missile defense, and support remain inadequate. The UK Defence Committee itself recently warned that the lack of European forces and over-reliance on the US are undermining NATO’s credibility. Added to this is the political uncertainty caused by Washington’s strategic shifts; the gradual withdrawal of US forces from Europe and the shift towards the Pacific have accelerated the debate within NATO about the need for European allies to take greater responsibility for collective defence.
Concerns about military supply chains have been reinforced by recent incidents, sabotage, and hybrid actions in Europe since the start of the Ukraine war. Rail infrastructure, energy networks, industrial facilities, and submarine cables are now considered priority strategic targets in hybrid confrontation scenarios. The Strategy Council report stresses that NATO must forever abandon the “just-in-time” support models, the legacy of decades of limited expeditionary operations, and rebuild a support architecture suited to high-intensity wars between state powers. The warning comes alongside other analyses in the UK of the fragility of Western supply chains.
The UK’s National Preparedness Commission also said this week that the UK and much of Europe are unprepared to deal with prolonged disruptions from war, energy crises, or widespread sabotage. In sum, several strategic studies suggest that NATO’s main challenge in a hypothetical conflict with Russia would be not just direct combat but also the ability to maintain an uninterrupted flow of troops, fuel, ammunition, and spare parts across a Europe increasingly vulnerable to hybrid and cyber attacks.
