When Resistance Moves from the Battlefield to the Political Stance

TEHRAN (Defapress) - As the Gaza war enters a phase of attrition and Israel's internal crisis reaches an unprecedented level, a senior Hamas delegation arrives in Cairo tonight to officially commence the first round of ceasefire negotiations. They represent not only an effort to stop the war but also a test for the balance of power in the Middle East, a region where resistance is stepping from the ashes of war into the arena of politics.

A War Without Victory and a Dual Stalemate

After months of conflict, the Gaza war has reached a point where neither side has achieved a decisive victory. The Israeli army has not only failed to destroy the military structure of the resistance but is also facing the attrition of its combat capabilities and a morale crisis among its forces. On the other hand, despite the brutal pressure of the siege and the humanitarian crisis, Hamas has maintained its organizational cohesion and will to resist.

Within the Zionist regime, political and social divisions are deeper than ever. Recent polls indicate that over 70% of Israeli citizens are dissatisfied with the performance of Netanyahu's government, and the protests by the families of Israeli captives have become one of the most serious internal challenges for the regime. The cabinet is plagued by fundamental disagreements over whether to continue or halt the war, a dispute that is a clear reflection of Tel Aviv's strategic weakness.

The Negotiation Framework: The "Trump Plan for Gaza"

The main framework for the Cairo negotiations is the "Trump Plan for Gaza," a proposal based on three pillars:

1.       An immediate ceasefire and prisoner exchange.

2.       Phased reconstruction and the lifting of restrictions.

3.       The gradual transfer of Gaza's management to a technical, non-military body.

In contrast, the Hamas delegation has emphasized several non-negotiable principles: first, the complete lifting of the blockade; second, a guarantee of reconstruction with the participation of Islamic countries; and third, no disarmament of the resistance. For Hamas, disarmament is a red line, as it would mean the end of its deterrent power and a return to absolute siege.

On the other side, the Zionist regime, led by Ron Dermer and Gal Hirsch, seeks to maintain security control over Gaza and wants to condition any reconstruction on the presence of international forces. The US, through the direct management of Jared Kushner, is exerting heavy political pressure on both sides to achieve a swift outcome, an outcome that Trump can use as an example of "peace through strength" in his electoral campaign.

Key Challenges: From Disarmament to the Future Management of Gaza

The core knot of the negotiations is the disagreement over the concept of "security." The resistance believes that Gaza's security hinges on lifting the blockade and ending the occupation, while Israel sees its own security in the military control of Gaza.

Hamas has warned that it will not sign any agreement without the complete lifting of the blockade. This position is supported by other resistance groups, such as Islamic Jihad and the Resistance Committees.

Conversely, internal and political pressures have placed Netanyahu in a fragile position. He is worried about a political rebellion within his cabinet on one hand, and knows that continuing the war could lead to the complete collapse of his government on the other.

The roles of Egypt and Qatar are crucial in this process. Cairo is striving to remain the primary mediator to maintain its regional standing vis-à-vis Doha. Qatar, leveraging its close ties with Washington and the resistance groups, is seeking to solidify its role as a reliable mediator.

The War of Narratives: From "Terrorism" to "Resistance"

While the fires of war continue in Gaza, another battle is being waged in the realm of media and public opinion. The Resistance has managed to transform the global narrative; now, many Western media outlets, which previously used the term "terrorism" to describe Hamas's operations, are compelled to use terms such as "resistance against the siege" or "defense of the people of Gaza."

This discourse shift is the Palestinians' most significant political achievement since the start of the war. The international legitimacy of the Resistance is expanding, and the presence of the Hamas delegation at the Cairo negotiation table is a symbol of this shift in the balance of legitimacy, from a besieged group to a diplomatic actor negotiating with global powers.

Balance of Power and Potential Consequences

1.       Collapse of the Israeli Narrative: The Zionist regime is mired in the quagmire of war and political crisis. Widespread protests, the resignation of some commanders, and diminishing global support have shattered the image of an invincible army.

2.       Elevated Status of the Resistance: Hamas is now not merely a military group, but a political actor capable of imposing its own conditions.

3.       The Dual Role of the US: Washington is caught between two conflicting interests: on one hand, preserving its image in the Islamic world, and on the other, supporting its strategic ally, Israel. Trump wants to score a "diplomatic victory," but the resistance and divisions within Netanyahu's cabinet have made this path costly.

4.       The Egypt-Qatar Rivalry: Both countries are striving to use the negotiation process to increase their regional influence.

5.       International Isolation of the Zionist Regime: Protests in Europe and pressure to halt arms exports to "Israel" have further weakened the regime's standing.

Possible Scenarios

·         Comprehensive and Sustainable Ceasefire: If an agreement is reached with regional and international guarantees, the reconstruction of Gaza will begin, and the political role of the Resistance will be solidified. In this scenario, Hamas rises from the level of a field actor to a legitimate player in the Palestinian political system.

·         Temporary and Fragile Ceasefire: In this case, the state of "no war, no peace" continues, with sporadic clashes persisting in border areas.

·         Collapse of Negotiations: If the talks collapse, a return to full-scale war is likely; a war that could involve fronts in Lebanon, the West Bank, and even the Red Sea.

The Cairo negotiations are a historic test; a test to gauge the political maturity of the Resistance and the limits of Israel's power. Today, the Resistance is not entering negotiations from a position of weakness, but is sitting at the table backed by its field leverage and global legitimacy.

If the Resistance delegation can incorporate its conditions – lifting the siege, the complete release of prisoners, and a guaranteed reconstruction of Gaza – into the final agreement, these talks will become a turning point in the history of the Palestinian struggle; a point where the Resistance triumphs not only on the battlefield but also in the arena of diplomacy. Cairo today is not merely a negotiation venue; it is the stage for the redefinition of power in the Middle East. From the ruins of Gaza, a new order is being born; an order whose center of gravity is no longer Tel Aviv or Washington, but the will of a people who, through resistance, have arrived at politics.