Iraq's Political Alignment Ahead of Crucial Elections

TEHRAN (Defapress) - Iraqis are preparing to participate in an election being held under highly sensitive circumstances. Limited voting began on Sunday with extensive security measures in place, and general voting will take place on Tuesday.

The outcome of this election will determine whether the current Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, can remain in power for a second term. This election is taking place while, on one hand, the possibility of another war between Iran and Israel has not dissipated, and on the other hand, there is speculation about a potential Israeli and American attack on the Iraqi Resistance.

While the Trump administration has increased political pressure against the Iraqi Resistance forces, Baghdad is trying to maintain a balance in its relations with Tehran and Washington.

The Iraqi Electoral System

Since the US invasion in 2003 that led to Saddam Hussein's overthrow, this is Iraq's seventh parliamentary election.

The security vacuum following Saddam's fall plunged Iraq into years of civil war, which ultimately paved the way for the emergence of terrorist groups, including ISIS. However, in recent years, the level of violence has decreased. Now, the primary concern for many Iraqis is not security, but rather a lack of job opportunities and the government's failure to provide public services and frequent power cuts.

According to the law, 25% of the 329 parliamentary seats must be allocated to women, and 9 seats are reserved for religious minorities. Based on a convention established for power-sharing after 2003, the position of Parliament Speaker is given to a Sunni figure, the Prime Minister to a Shiite figure, and the Presidency to a Kurdish figure.

Voter turnout in recent Iraqi elections has consistently declined. In the 2021 parliamentary election, turnout was 41%, the lowest in the post-Saddam era, compared to 44% in the 2018 election. However, in this election, only 21.4 million out of a total of 32 million eligible voters have updated their information and received their voting cards. This number is lower than the 2021 election, where approximately 24 million people were registered.

Also, unlike previous elections, there will be no polling stations outside the country.

Main Players in the Election

In this election, 7,744 candidates are competing. Iraqi Shiites are active in alliances such as "Construction and Development" led by Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, "State of Law" led by Nouri al-Maliki, and "National Wisdom Movement" led by Ammar al-Hakim. In addition to these three alliances, the political wings of some Resistance groups are also present in the race. Kata'ib Hezbollah and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, led by Qais al-Khazali, are also working to attract voters through the " Al-Sadiqoun" coalition.

However, one of the most prominent players in Iraqi politics is absent from the election scene. The Sadr Movement, led by Muqtada al-Sadr, is boycotting the election. The Sadrist Coalition won the most seats in the 2021 election, but after failed negotiations to form a government and disagreements with Shiite rivals, it withdrew from the political participation process. He has boycotted the Iraqi political system ever since.

Sadr City, the main base of the Sadrist current in Iraq, is home to about 40% of the capital's population and has always played a decisive role in the balance of power among Shiite factions. Still, on the eve of this election, the busy streets of this area are devoid of election posters and banners.

On the Sunni side, two coalitions are present: one led by Mohammed al-Halbousi, the former parliament speaker, and the other by Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, the current speaker. The Kurds also see the activity of the two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

Also, some reformist groups that emerged from the widespread anti-government protests in 2019 are participating in the elections, but they face problems such as internal disputes, lack of financial resources, and lack of political support.

Meanwhile, 848 candidates have been disqualified by election officials for reasons such as insulting religious rituals and the Iraqi armed forces.

Concerns about the Electoral Process

While there is widespread speculation about political corruption and vote buying before the election, concerns about political violence remain strong. Past Iraqi elections have often been accompanied by political violence, manifesting as the assassination of candidates, armed attacks on polling stations, and clashes between supporters of different factions.

Although the level of violence has decreased significantly, on the eve of this election, one candidate was assassinated. Last month, Safaa al-Mashhadani, a Sunni candidate from the Tarmiyah area, was killed by a car bomb explosion. Five suspects have been arrested in connection with this killing, and the case is being treated as a terrorist act.

Al-Sudani's Effort to Return to the Prime Minister's Seat

Al-Sudani came to power in 2022 with the support of Shiite parties and Resistance groups and subsequently tried to balance Iraq's relations with Tehran and Washington. He has presented himself as a pragmatic figure focused on improving public services.

Although Iraq has experienced relative stability during al-Sudani's premiership, his path to a second term is not smooth. Since 2003, Nouri al-Maliki has been the only figure who has served as Prime Minister for more than one term.

For Sudani's stay or departure, the election result is not necessarily decisive; as in several past elections, the coalition that won the most seats was unable to bring its desired Prime Minister to power.

Al-Sudani, on one hand, faces internal Shiite disagreements over control of state institutions, and on the other hand, is under increasing American pressure to confront the Resistance groups.

One of the most important contentious issues is the fate of the "Popular Mobilization Forces"; a coalition of Resistance forces that defeated ISIS. These forces were officially placed under the command of the Iraqi army in 2016, but at the same time, they enjoy significant independence.