Life Imprisonment for Persian Gulf Countries in the Strait of Hormuz

TEHRAN (Defapress) - Days after the start of the regional war with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and controlled by Iranian armed forces; negotiations between Iran and the United States are also at a standstill. This situation has become a complex puzzle for the Persian Gulf countries; countries whose main economy is formed by the export of hydrocarbons. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, in 2025, nearly 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed through this vital passageway daily.

Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are trying to reshape their oil and trade routes, but this strategic imperative faces serious constraints. The main reasons for these difficulties are examined below.

While countries such as Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain have no alternative sea access and are completely dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some alternative routes through pipelines connecting to the Red Sea and the Sea of ​​Oman. However, this infrastructure, which was operational before the crisis, has limited capacity and, according to the International Energy Agency, covers only between 3.5 and 5 million barrels per day.

The situation is similar in the gas sector. Liquefied natural gas (LNG), mainly produced by Qatar, has practically no significant alternative for transportation. Qatar exports some of its gas to the UAE and Oman via the Dolphin pipeline, but the pipeline’s spare capacity is limited, and Oman’s export facilities are operating at near capacity.

On the other hand, plans such as the Trans-Arabian Pipeline have never been implemented. The long distances, political complexities, and high costs have made these projects economically uneconomical compared to sea transport.

Iranian drone attacks have also complicated the situation. Saudi Arabia recently acknowledged the damage to its energy infrastructure from these attacks. Although one of the country’s main pipelines is back in orbit, the attacks highlight the vulnerability of these alternative routes.

With many major ports in the southern Persian Gulf, including Jebel Ali in the UAE, inaccessible, cargo ships have been diverted to ports in Oman or on the Red Sea coast in Saudi Arabia. Even the port of the futuristic city project “Neom” has been put into operation.

After goods arrive at these ports, they are transported to other countries via land routes. For example, Iraq has turned to the Syrian route. Saudi Arabia is also trying to connect the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and the Jordanian border by creating combined road and rail corridors.

However, the capacity of these routes is limited, and the cost of land transportation is much higher than sea transportation. For example, at least 10,000 trucks are needed to replace a standard oil tanker.

Meanwhile, the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council railway project, which was supposed to connect the six member states by 2030, has faced numerous delays. Larger projects such as the “India-Middle East-Europe” economic corridor are also at a fragile and uncertain stage, especially given the political challenges in the region.

Despite increased logistical cooperation between regional countries since the start of the war in March, economic and political rivalries remain a serious obstacle to regional integration. Financial pressures from falling oil revenues, reconstruction costs, and rising military budgets could exacerbate these rivalries.

A prime example of these tensions is the UAE’s sudden decision to withdraw from OPEC on the pretext of “national interests,” a move that has particularly highlighted the differences between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.

The experience of past crises, including Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1980 or the blockade of Qatar, has shown that the region has so far failed to achieve the level of multilateral and sustainable cooperation necessary to implement major infrastructure projects. It seems that the current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, despite its high geopolitical importance, will not be able to generate the political will necessary for such cooperation.