Yellow Gorilla Becomes a Lame Duck

TEHRAN (Defapress) - Alexandra Voitolovskaya, Associate Professor of Political Science at the Institute for World Economy and International Affairs: The midterm elections for the US Congress will be held on November 3, 2026. In the current Congress, both chambers (House of Representatives and the Senate) are controlled by the Republican Party, which allows Donald Trump (around whom the party has united) to determine the legislative process and advance his initiatives without having to bargain with the Democratic minority.

This situation may change in six months. Most likely, the Republicans will lose control of one or both chambers. From that moment on, Trump will become a so-called “lame duck” - a president whose term is coming to an end. His legislative phase is over, and the focus will be largely on selecting and preparing a successor to run for the presidency in 2028.

Why Will Trump Lose Control of Congress?

A combination of socio-economic and foreign policy factors suggests that the Democratic Party will at least gain control of the House of Representatives.

Since 1938, the president’s party has lost seats in 20 of the 22 midterm elections. This dissatisfaction with unfulfilled campaign promises has occurred especially in periods of intense partisan polarization. On the other hand, the price of goods and services continues to rise. Gasoline is up 21.2% in the past month, and other fuels are up 30.7%.

The Iran regional war has unsettled the conservative base. Tariff policy will also hurt farm voters (the Republican core). At the same time, Trump's tough immigration policy has angered Hispanic voters (one-fifth of the US population).

The "No Kings" movement held its largest rally in history on March 28, 2026. About two-thirds of the protests took place outside major cities, including in Republican states. Since the beginning of 2025, Democrats have won 12 districts in Republican states (Texas, Mississippi, Iowa) and 8 districts in Florida (a key state).

Scenario 1: Loss of Control of One of the Chambers

If the Republicans lose the majority in one of the chambers, the following are possible:

Investigation and impeachment: Democrats hold oversight hearings and try to impeach Trump. However, an absolute majority in the Senate is needed to remove him from office, which is unlikely.

Blocked legislative initiatives: Democrats can block or obstruct the president’s proposals in House committees.

Shutdown: The government could be shut down repeatedly due to budget disagreements.

Nominations: The Senate would no longer be able to confirm cabinet members, judges, and high-ranking officials (if they were not in control).

Foreign policy restrictions: Democrats would pass legislation to limit the president’s military powers and his ability to impose sanctions.

Scenario 2: Losing Both Houses

In this case, the president would have almost no influence on the legislative agenda and could only veto laws that were passed, which his veto might be overridden. In this case, Trump would focus on issuing executive orders. But Democrats could block their implementation funds, pass counter-laws, or overturn them through federal courts and the Supreme Court.

The Importance of the 2026 Election for the Future of America

A Democratic victory in 2026 will effectively kick off the 2028 presidential campaign. Their main strategy will be to discredit Trump, right-wing Republicans, and divide the MAGA movement.

However, if the Democratic elite fails to develop a unifying strategy for the various factions within the party (radical left-liberal and moderate progressives) and fails to find a strong leader in the next two years, the Democrats will face the same outcome as in the 2024 election. Their main problem is the lack of manpower and the absence of a single-party platform. The elites are changing very slowly, and there are no strong candidates to challenge young conservatives.

Final Scenario

Regardless of the election outcome, Trump will remain focused on three areas: strengthening the military, reducing social spending, and tightening immigration policy.

If Trump loses control of Congress, he will pursue a pragmatic foreign policy path focused on confronting China on trade and in the Western Hemisphere.

But if he loses both chambers, he will become a complete lame duck, severely limited in his ability to maneuver in all areas.