Five Scenarios for the Future of the Iran-US War, According to Newsweek

TEHRAN (Defapress) - The American magazine "Newsweek" has proposed five possible scenarios for the path of the US-Israel war against Iran. The magazine claims in its report that Trump does not rule out new military options.

Scenario One: Resumption of the War to Impose a Limited Agreement

Newsweek claims that the most likely scenario is that the US will resume military strikes to force Iran to return to the negotiating table with better conditions.

The magazine continues: The White House may launch a new attack to force Tehran to make concessions on its nuclear program or freedom of navigation, which would allow Trump to declare the "success of coercive diplomacy."

But the magazine warns that Trump’s threat of “more severe attacks” could become a permanent test of his political and military credibility, especially if those attacks fail to produce a decisive result.

Scenario Two: Iran Backs Down Under Economic Pressure

Newsweek argues that a more stable scenario is for Iran to agree to a compromise before resuming full-scale war, as regional mediators try to find a solution that would see Tehran make concessions in exchange for a gradual easing of U.S. sanctions.

Newsweek emphasizes that economic pressures on Iran are increasing as shipping in the Persian Gulf continues to be disrupted and energy prices rise, exacerbating a domestic economic crisis.

Trump, on the other hand, is also facing domestic pressures from rising oil prices and their impact on the U.S. economy ahead of the midterm elections. The success of this scenario requires a formula that both sides can claim to have won.

Scenario Three: A Protracted War of Attrition

Newsweek considers this scenario to be the most realistic and at the same time the most negative option; a war of attrition that includes US attacks, Iranian responses, and permanent disruption of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the Newsweek report, Iran does not need to create a military balance to harm the US. It is enough to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed or insecure to cause chaos in the global economy.

This economic war could turn into a battle of patience, as Iran faces a decline in oil exports and the US faces rising energy prices and pressure from allies concerned about the continuation of the crisis.

Newsweek warns that the continuation of this situation could increase public dissatisfaction in public opinion on both sides, because the economic and political costs of an endless war would be heavy.

Scenario Four: Open Entry of the Persian Gulf States into the War

According to Newsweek, the most dangerous scenario is for the Persian Gulf states to directly enter the war on the side of the United States.

The magazine warns that such an intervention could push the region towards a wider regional confrontation with enormous human and economic costs.

Scenario Five: A Formal Ceasefire and the Continuation of the War in Practice

Newsweek wrote that the most likely scenario is for the ceasefire to continue in appearance, but economic and military pressure to continue indirectly.

In this situation, sanctions, a naval blockade, tension in the Strait of Hormuz, cyber and drone attacks would continue, without a full-scale war being declared.

This scenario is more suitable for Trump, because it would preserve the tools of pressure without having to decide on a full-scale war.

But Newsweek warns that this ambiguous situation could turn into a “permanent war in the name of a ceasefire”, a war that continues without a real political solution.

Newsweek concluded that the main problem is the lack of a clear agreement that specifies the terms of ending the war, reopening shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf, and controlling Iran’s nuclear program.