Armenia: So Far and So Close

TEHRAN (Defapress) - Armenia has always been a special neighbor for Iran. Understanding the depth of the recent geopolitical developments in this country requires understanding the historical roots of Armenia’s relations with Russia, the reasons for its current distancing from Moscow, and the consequences of Yerevan’s proximity to the West on the security and national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Historical dependence on Russia

Modern Armenia owes its existence to the expansion of the Russian Empire in the Caucasus. In 1828, with the signing of the Treaty of Turkmenchay between Iran and Russia, the Khanates of Yerevan and Nakhchivan were annexed to the Tsarist realm. According to this treaty, a vast area of ​​about 20,000 square kilometers of modern-day Armenia and other regions of the Caucasus was ceded to Russia, and the Aras River was established as the new border between Iran and Russia. This was the beginning of Russia’s political and military presence in the heart of the South Caucasus.

During the Soviet Union, Armenia became one of its republics and gained deep infrastructural and economic dependence on the center (Moscow). The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 left the newly independent Armenia in a fragile state. An economic blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict pushed Yerevan ever closer to Moscow. As a result, Armenia became a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and hosted a Russian military base in Gyumri, thus becoming a strategic ally of the Kremlin in the region.

Motives for disengagement from Russia

However, in recent years, this picture has undergone profound changes. The most important factor in this distancing has been the “failure of Russian security guarantees” towards Armenia. The inability and lack of effective action by Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to support Armenia during the 2020 and 2022 wars with Azerbaijan dealt a fatal blow to Yerevan’s confidence. The frustration reached its peak when Azerbaijani forces took full control of the Karabakh region in September 2023. Russia, historically considered the guarantor of Armenia’s security, has been unable to prevent this development.

In response to this setback, Armenia has effectively suspended its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and announced that it will withdraw from the treaty altogether. Armenian leaders have openly spoken of their desire to join the European Union and distance themselves from Russia. Meanwhile, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has played a central role in steering this new foreign policy, which aims to reduce the historical influence of Russia and Moscow-centric policies and seek new partners in the West.

Opportunities and threats confronting the West

The turn to the West has placed Armenia on a torturous path, with both opportunities and serious threats. The table below provides a clear picture of this difficult calculation:

Opportunities (Strengths)

- Diversifying security: Armenia is looking for alternatives to the Russian security umbrella. The deployment of the European Union Civilian Monitoring Mission (EUMA) on Armenia’s borders and the allocation of €30 million in non-lethal assistance from the EU to strengthen the country’s defense capabilities are signs of this change in approach.

- Attracting financial assistance and investment: The country has benefited from EU support programs. For example, the “Resilience and Growth” plan with a budget of €270 million for 2024-2027 seeks to strengthen infrastructure and digital transformation in Armenia.

- Democratic reforms and transparency: Proximity to the West can provide an incentive to accelerate political and economic reforms, reduce corruption, and improve governance indicators. Armenia’s relative improvement in international indicators is a sign of this trend.

Threats (Weaknesses)

- Hostile Russian reaction: Moscow considers this change of direction as its red line and has reacted. Among the threats are the possibility of stopping economic preferences and a multiple increase in the price of Russian gas exports to Armenia.

- Serious economic losses: Leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) means losing preferential access to the large market of Russia and its member states. This will be a particularly heavy blow to Armenia's agricultural and industrial exports.

- Geopolitical isolation: Full proximity to the West could pose more serious challenges for Armenia in maintaining the balance of relations in a region where Russia, Turkey, and Iran have vital interests.

Threats and opportunities for Iran

Armenia’s turn to the West is considered a “critical turning point” from the perspective of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Tehran sees both serious threats and potential opportunities amidst the complexities of this development.

The threats are primarily concerned with changing the balance of power and communication corridors:

- Weakened security and the emergence of a power vacuum: The decline in Russian influence in Armenia, which has maintained relative stability on Iran’s northwestern borders, could lead to instability and a geopolitical vacuum that would accelerate the entry of extra-regional powers (especially the United States and NATO). From Tehran’s perspective, Armenia’s withdrawal from the CSTO and distancing itself from Moscow is “not desirable” and would weaken the trilateral cooperation between Tehran, Yerevan, and Moscow.

- Pressure on transit corridors: The further activation of the so-called “Zangzur” corridor to connect the Republic of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and Turkey is the most important economic and security threat to Iran. If such a corridor is activated without Tehran’s involvement, Iran’s strategic border with Armenia (more than 40 km) will be completely eliminated, turning the South Caucasus into an area completely under the influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan. This “geopolitical trap” scenario is Iran’s most important strategic concern.

Opportunities are also hidden in these developments:

- Increased economic influence: As Armenia’s dependence on the Russian market decreases, it will naturally seek alternative economic partners in the south. By strengthening the North-South corridor and exploiting energy and transit commonalities, Iran can establish its position as a reliable gateway for Armenia and global markets.

- Playing a balancing role: Armenia's turn to the West does not necessarily mean a complete severance of its relations with Moscow. In this situation, Iran is able to play the role of a "stabilizing and balancing actor" in the South Caucasus by maintaining and strengthening balanced relations with all key players (Russia, Turkey, and Armenia) and preventing the region from becoming the exclusive domain of a particular power.

Unlike the past when Russia's long shadow hung over it, Armenia is today charting an independent path. This ancient neighbor of Iran is more than ever looking at the reality of "distant powers." For Tehran, the Caucasus is the country's "strategic backyard" and every movement there, from the Zangezur Corridor to the security of the borders of East Azerbaijan, is monitored with great sensitivity. Now, the smartness of Iranian diplomacy lies in managing the threats posed by Western influence, while making the most of the windows of economic opportunity opened by this turn and not allowing the fragile and long-standing balance in the Caucasus to be disrupted.