Will Colombia's Trump Win?

TEHRAN (Defapress) - More than 41 million Colombians will go to the polls on Sunday in a crucial presidential runoff election as the country grapples with its worst wave of violence since a historic peace deal in 2016. Polls show Abelardo de la Espriella, a far-right lawyer and millionaire businessman who is a Trump fan, has a strong chance of winning. He has promised to halt the current government’s “total peace” plan and resume full-scale military warfare against armed groups. He faces leftist senator Iván Cepeda, a key peace architect who is a successor to current President Gustavo Petro.

The election will reshape the political balance in Colombia, where the country is at its most tense since the disarmament of the FARC. De la Espriella is calling for an end to Gustavo Petro’s peaceful approach to criminal organisations, using his “iron-fist” strategy. Petro has been trying to achieve complete disarmament through dialogue, but his opponent believes that only the language of the army and repression will work.

On the other hand, Petro's chosen successor, Ivan Cepeda, is a staunch advocate of peace agreements, although he admits that the plan requires fundamental structural changes. Cepeda, who led the polls for much of the campaign, now faces a serious challenge to win over the moderate masses after his surprise defeat in the first round three weeks ago.

A possible victory for de la Espriella would make Colombia a new link in the chain of far-right power grabs in the region, a trend that was already consolidated by the leadership of Keiko Fujimori in Peru and the victory of José Antonio Kast in Chile last year. If Bogota turns right, in the entire geography of Latin America, only Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay and Guatemala will remain under leftist governments.

Sandra Borda Guzmán, an associate professor of political science at the Universidad Los Andes in Bogotá, believes that de la Espriella has successfully ridden two global waves: presenting himself as a figure outside the structure of government and promising quick solutions to end insecurity. The combination of Colombia’s internal security crisis and the public’s preference for populist and anti-political figures has contributed to his sudden surge in public opinion.

De la Espriella, who began his legal career defending right-wing militia commanders, initially promised to retake areas controlled by drug traffickers within 90 days, but later, in an interview with Radio Caracol, he tactically retreated, saying that he never said he would solve the security crisis in 90 days, but that his goal was to capture or eliminate 10 major drug and organized crime leaders in the first three months.

Despite this hot market of promises, citizens’ perception of the two candidates is completely polarised. Miguel Bermudez, a 40-year-old office manager from Cartagena, says he is voting for de la Espriella because he is a fresh face and he is tired of the same old political narratives. Bermudez believes that, despite being a lawyer for the wealthy for years, Espriella conveys a sense of independence and a new force.

On the other hand, Kátia Outten, a 57-year-old dentist from the island of San Andrés, chose Cepeda because she believes that the left-wing government, by raising the minimum wage and expanding support programs, has reduced poverty rates to their lowest level since 2012 and understands the needs of ordinary people. She also considers de la Espriella’s rhetoric to be a clear example of sexism, referring to a controversial radio interview in which the right-wing candidate claimed that his popularity with women was due to his physical characteristics. Outten believes that women make up half of the country's population and will respond to this empty rhetoric with their informed vote.

Ultimately, this great dilemma has placed Colombia's destiny between two completely opposite perspectives; a night that will either lead to a powerful return to military approaches with an iron fist or extend the reformed path of peace and the continuation of leftist welfare programs. The results of the second round of votes will show whether Colombia will join the new wave of extreme rightism in Latin America or whether the mass of society, especially women and the disadvantaged classes, prefer to remain on the principles of peace discourse in order to preserve the current economic and social stability.