Economic Consequences of Regional War According to Statistics

TEHRAN (Defapress) - A review of data published by international economic institutions shows that the continuation of the war and the escalation of regional tensions could have widespread consequences for the US economy, regional countries, and global markets.

According to these estimates, the US inflation rate, which was predicted to be around 2.4% before the war, has now reached around 3.3%, and in the scenario of the continuation of the regional war with Iran within the next six months, it may increase to the range of 4.5 to 5%. Also, US economic growth, which was previously estimated at 2.5%, has faced a decline and may fall to around 1.2% if the crisis continues; an issue that is evaluated as halving the country's economic growth.

Meanwhile, forecasts indicate that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates to control inflationary pressures. Based on the data provided, interest rates could increase by at least one percentage point, a move that would increase US government spending by hundreds of billions of dollars. Some estimates also indicate an increase in US government spending by $200 to $400 billion if the conflict continues. The source of this data is Goldman Sachs.

At the regional level, the International Monetary Fund has also examined the economic effects of the war on West Asian countries. According to this assessment, the Iranian economy will face a 6.1 percent decline in GDP and an increase in inflation of more than 18 percent. The closure of the tourism industry and damage to technological infrastructure are cited as the most important factors in this situation.

In the Zionist regime, a 1.7% decline in GDP and an increase of about 0.3% in inflation are predicted, and damage to energy and technological infrastructure is considered to be the main factor in this situation.

The Iraqi economy has also been affected by the war, and estimates indicate a 6.8% decline in GDP and a 2% increase in inflation. The country's complete dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and damage to infrastructure have been stated to be the most important reasons for this situation.

Saudi Arabia will also face a 1.4% decline in GDP and a 0.5% increase in inflation. The decline in oil exports and possible damage to infrastructure have been stated to be the main factors of this economic decline.

According to the report, the Bahraini economy is also likely to face a 0.5% decline in GDP and a 2% increase in inflation, with the closure of business centers and technology industries being cited as the main reasons.

Qatar is not immune to the consequences of the regional war with Iran, and its GDP is expected to decline by 8.6 percent and inflation to increase by more than 1 percent. Meanwhile, the attack on natural gas production facilities has been identified as the most important economic threat to Qatar.

The UAE will also face a 2.7 percent decline in GDP and an increase in inflation of more than 1 percent; analysts believe the closure of the tourism industry and damage to technology infrastructure are among the most important factors in this situation.

At the same time, global markets have also experienced significant fluctuations under the influence of the war atmosphere. Published data shows that the price of Brent crude oil, which was in the $70 range before the war, could reach $140-240 in a scenario of escalating tensions. The price of European natural gas, gold, silver, and industrial metals is also on the rise.

According to these analyses, the continuation of Iran's regional war will not only expose the regional economy to wider instability, but also the global financial and energy markets.