Sustainable Deterrence on the Lebanese Front
TEHRAN (Defapress) - Sabtin al-Jabouri, Senior Expert on Political and International Affairs: Field and diplomatic paths in West Asia are increasingly intertwined, in such a way that the atmosphere of ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran has cast a shadow over all fronts in the region. In this context, the Lebanese scene has become one of the most important arenas for stabilizing deterrence equations, where recent developments clearly reveal the structural deadlock of the Israeli army, a regime that is trying to hide its operational failure and inability to break the organic bond of the Resistance-oriented fronts by announcing new offensive plans.
Examining the military and political dimensions of the current developments makes this equation analyzable in the form of three strategic axes:
First: Erosion of the Credibility of Israeli Military Resolutions and the Stalemate on the Ground in Southern Lebanon
The announcement by the Zionist regime’s army of its approval of the continuation of military attacks and operations in Lebanon, while simultaneously raising the issue of extending the ceasefire or forming regional understandings, is more than a sign of superiority on the ground; it is an expression of Tel Aviv’s attempt to escape forward. Such resolutions and positions reflect the need of the Zionist regime’s political and military leaders to inject psychological peace into the crisis-ridden Israeli society and to maintain the initiative on the ground. The Zionist regime has well understood that the ground in southern Lebanon has not created a decisive advantage for it, because its military operations have encountered continuous resistance and erosion, and this has turned Tel Aviv’s threats to continue escalating tensions into a political cover to cover up its inability on the ground.
Second: Drone Weapons and the Erosion of Israel’s Air Superiority Theory
In response to the Zionist regime’s media space-building, the Lebanese Islamic Resistance has imposed a new field equation by making advanced use of drones, an equation that has become one of the most important tools of pressure and erosion against the Israeli military structure. The continued activation of warning sirens in the towns of northern occupied Palestine due to the possibility of Resistance drone infiltration indicates the tangible inefficiency of Israel’s surveillance and tracking systems, despite their advanced technologies.
In these circumstances, drones are no longer simply reconnaissance tools, but have become an offensive and precise system that is capable of breaking through air defense barriers and targeting sensitive centers and military gatherings with high precision and flexibility; an issue that has limited an important part of the operational freedom of the Zionist regime’s army.
Third: The Continuity of the Fronts and the Role of Tehran’s Stability in Thwarting the Isolation Project
American and Israeli circles are trying to create a basis for separating the fronts and isolating Lebanon through political maneuvers and eroding negotiations with Tehran, so that they can independently pressure the Resistance, but these efforts have been met with the stability of Iran’s position and the cohesion of the Resistance Axis. The emphasis of the diplomatic apparatus of the Islamic Republic of Iran that any agreement to end the war must include a halt to aggression against Lebanon has practically thwarted Israel’s calculations about the possibility of separating the Iranian case from the Hezbollah front. The firm positions of the Hezbollah leader showed that the Resistance will not accept any security arrangements that violate Lebanese sovereignty or provide political gains for the Zionist regime, especially gains that the enemy has been unable to achieve in the field. These positions also emphasize the readiness of the Lebanese front to continue the confrontation within the framework of deterrence equations.
Field and political data show that the Israeli army is in a state of confusion between maintaining deterrence and the reality of increasing attrition resulting from Resistance operations.
The activation of the drone equation and smart attrition warfare by the resistance, along with the strategic and sustained coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, has placed Tel Aviv before two difficult options: either accepting the conditions for stopping aggression based on new deterrence balances, or entering into a long-term attrition war that could further weaken the occupying regime's deterrence and capacity to impose political and military equations.
