Shifting the Balance of Power on the Western Coast of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab
TEHRAN (Defapress) - Sebtain Al-Jubouri, Senior Expert on Political and International Affairs: The scene of developments in Yemen in recent days has witnessed rapid field movements that indicate significant changes in the balance of power and the paths of confrontation; developments that have been manifested more than anywhere else along the western coast of Yemen and around the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait.
In a situation where the land, sea, and air dimensions of the conflict are more intertwined than ever before, the Yemeni battle is no longer defined solely within the framework of traditional lines of contact, but is directly linked to equations of regional influence, the security of sea passages, and calculations of mutual deterrence.
In such an environment, the Yemeni Armed Forces in Sanaa are trying to establish a field equation whose scope goes beyond the borders of domestic fronts. On the other side are military formations and factional groups that, based on field data, face multiple decision-making centers and differences in political and military priorities.
From this perspective, examining recent developments without considering the nature of existing coalitions, the position of the western coast and Bab al-Mandab in the military equation, as well as the consequences of the escalation of cross-border missile and air attacks, will not provide a complete picture of the current situation.
1. Strategic environment and coalition network
The Yemeni Armed Forces in Sanaa are at a stage where the goal is to impose a comprehensive field equation; an equation that is based on a high level of coordination and responsiveness within the framework of the axis of resistance and regional support, and its ultimate goal is to end foreign influence and protect Yemen’s national sovereignty and maritime security.
In contrast, military formations affiliated with the legitimate government and the “Presidential Leadership Council” rely on extensive logistical and air support from the US-Saudi coalition and, at the same time, have increased the use of drones to rebuild and strengthen their operational capacity.
However, this front is facing a kind of structural rupture, in such a way that the multiplicity of decision-making centers and the dispersion of military priorities, from the western coast to the eastern regions, have affected its operational coherence.
2. The western coast and Bab al-Mandab: changing the rules of the game
The theater of operations on the coastal axis has witnessed a significant tactical evolution. Concentrated and surprise attacks in recent days have led to important changes in the deployment plan of forces and have affected the equations existing on this axis.
Field control over the two cities of Hays and Al-Khokha in the south of Hodeidah province has disrupted the military support lines of the joint forces; a development that could affect the ability of these forces to maintain and strengthen their positions on the coastal axis.
The strategic advance towards the city and port of Al-Mukha and its control has taken place simultaneously with the expansion of the scope of movements towards the Hanish Islands and the surrounding areas of Dhabab. This development has enabled direct fire control over the international waterway of Bab al-Mandab and, on the other hand, has limited the maneuvering capacity of naval vessels affiliated with the Western coalition.
All of these developments, while limiting efforts to transfer forces and equipment from the south, have paved the way for the formation of an advanced defense belt; a belt that aims to provide control over vital sea passages and outlets and stabilize the position along the coastline.
3. Central and Eastern Fronts: Al-Jawf, Marib, Al-Bayda and Taiz
In other military axes, the process of development is also being pursued based on strategies of containment, erosion of the opposing side’s offensive power, and the application of fire deterrence. The main goal in these axes is to prevent the opposing side from achieving decisive field breakthroughs and changing the lines of contact.
In these axes, the Yemeni Armed Forces have tried to contain attacks to break the lines of contact in the Al-Labanat and Al-Yatimah sectors by intensifying the fighting. At the same time, the auxiliary forces of the opposing side entering the region through border routes have been targeted with precise missile attacks.
Offensive attempts in the outskirts of Al-Zahir city, the peripheral areas of Dhi Na’im, and the Maris district have been thwarted, and, on the other hand, geographical positions have been consolidated on dominant heights; heights that are considered one of the front lines of defense for protecting Sanaa from a military perspective.
On the Taiz front, with the closure of the routes leading to Al-Mokha, the connection of Taiz city with its main coastal outlet has been limited. At the same time, positions and points under control in Maqbanah and Jabal Habashi have been consolidated; an action that can be evaluated within the framework of the effort to maintain field superiority in this axis.
4. The cross-border deterrence equation and strategic perspective
Within the framework of its deterrence strategy, the Yemeni Armed Forces rely on activating drone and missile capabilities to target regional depth and coalition positions in Jizan, Najran, Abha, and Khamis Mushait.
This process aims to send deterrent messages and increase the cost of weapons and operational support to local groups; an action that, if continued, could expand the dimensions of the conflict beyond Yemen’s internal geography.
In this context, field data indicate that having the initiative in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait has allowed Sanaa to strengthen its strategic terms in the conflict equation. In this way, Sanaa has presented itself as an actor whose role cannot be ignored in the regional and international shipping security equation.
The developments on the ground in Yemen show that the conflict has entered a phase in which control of the land fronts, dominance of the maritime domain, and regional deterrence equations are more intertwined than ever before.
Meanwhile, the western coast and the Bab al-Mandab Strait have gained importance beyond their geographical location and direct military function, as the control and security of this area are directly related to the security of international shipping and broader strategic balances in the region.
Based on the data presented, the continuation of the field initiative and the ability to combine land, missile, air, and naval tools can further strengthen Sanaa’s position in the conflict equation. In contrast, the competing parties face the important challenge of rebuilding the military structure, increasing coordination, and integrating decision-making centers.
From this perspective, the upcoming phase could witness increasing competition to establish new rules of engagement; A competition in which how to manage the escalation of tension and the ability to exert mutual deterrence will become a determining factor in charting the future course of the Yemeni conflict and its regional consequences.
