Iran's Upper Hand at Islamabad Station, Who Helped Broker the Ceasefire?

TEHRAN (Defapress) - Anastasia Semenchenko - Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. On what conditions did the US leader stop attacks on Tehran's energy infrastructure, and what should be expected from now on? Just one day earlier, the US and Iran had exchanged such harsh statements that they shook the world. Donald Trump, a few hours before the expiration of his self-declared ultimatum, threatened that "an entire civilization will be destroyed" tonight, and Tehran responded that if the Americans crossed "red lines," it would send 14 million people to defend itself.

The media interpreted the US leader's statements as a hint at the possibility of using nuclear weapons against Iran, but the White House called those who had drawn such a conclusion "absolute fools."

Nevertheless, the world viewed the politicians' and media's statements with serious concern. Some political experts considered Trump's statements as escalation and another bout of bravado, while others thought he genuinely intended to deliver a heavy blow to Iran's oil transportation infrastructure and other important facilities.

Daniil Kochetov, a public and municipal administration specialist, journalist, political analyst, and social activist, stated in an interview with the publication "Vologda Region News": To be honest, after Trump's harsh statements about the "destruction of an entire civilization," the ceasefire was quite predictable. Such sweeping and harsh attacks are often part of a classic American tactic called "maximum pressure." Trump likes to flex his muscles so that later he can sit at the negotiating table from a position of strength. Iran understands this very well and also knows how to save face.

Who helped the ceasefire?

However, after it became clear that the countries had agreed to a two-week ceasefire, Trump claimed that the United States had "exceeded all its military objectives in the operation against Iran," and Pakistan helped the ceasefire. The US leader took this step on the condition that Iran fully and immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Associated Press claimed that China also played an important role in the ceasefire agreement and wrote in this regard: Beijing contacted Tehran and tried to convince it to agree to the ceasefire.

Israel also agreed to the ceasefire between Iran and the US. But Tel Aviv at the same time noted that it would continue its attacks on Lebanon. In general, Israel believes that the ceasefire saves "Hezbollah" from defeat in Lebanon and gives Iran the opportunity to strengthen its positions without the threat of attack from the US.

Iran's relative advantage

In Iran, the two-week ceasefire has been called a great victory. In Tehran, they believe that the Americans have failed and have surrendered to Iran's conditions. In contrast, in the US, they are confident that it was the Americans who defeated Iran. The White House spokesperson called the ceasefire a victory for the US that was "secured by President Trump." Karoline Leavitt noted: From the very beginning of Operation Epic Fury, President Trump estimated that the operation would last between 4 and 6 weeks. Thanks to the incredible capabilities of our warriors, we achieved and exceeded our main military objectives within 38 days.

Daniil Kochetov said in this regard: In my opinion, the truth, as always, lies somewhere in the middle, but with a relative advantage in favor of Iran. But America can also fully say that its pressure worked. For Washington, this seems like a tactical success. However, Iran also has every reason to celebrate. Iran not only withstood the blow but also forced the US to retreat from the most aggressive scenarios. Tehran showed it was ready to go all the way while also saving face.

Fragile ceasefire

However, experts note that Trump does not want, and simply cannot, have a prolonged war with Iran, and Congress also opposes it; therefore, he will be forced to maintain the fragile ceasefire and pretend that everything is going according to plan.

The ceasefire became a breather in this conflict, yet key disagreements remain unresolved: the nuclear program, sanctions, and security in the Persian Gulf. If negotiations in Islamabad fail, the risk of a return to escalation is high.

Olga Larina, an international policy expert, says: The Americans' recognition of Iran's right to control the Strait of Hormuz would mean accepting the failure of their strategy in the region. Achieving a full reconciliation will not be easy. One potential obstacle is the domestic politics of both sides. In the US, congressional elections are approaching, and Trump needs to show results. Iran, on the other hand, has no intention of abandoning its nuclear achievements, while the US and Israel are exactly demanding that. Regional actors such as Israel and Saudi Arabia will also sabotage any agreement reached.

Daniil Kochetov notes: The conflict could flare up again very quickly. It is enough for one of the parties to conclude that the ceasefire is not beneficial to it. The next 3 to 6 months will be very dangerous. Usually, it is during this period that all hidden contradictions reveal themselves. In my opinion, this is not peace, but a temporary pause.

However, not even a day had passed before the ceasefire was violated. The US and Israel attacked oil refineries in southern Iran. In response to this action, the Iranian armed forces attacked the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain.