Not-so-Great Britain on the Verge of Disintegration and Collapse Again

TEHRAN (Defapress) - The motivation for independence from London is increasing in different parts of the UK. All three non-English parts of the country, including Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland, have witnessed the rise to power of political forces in favor of removing their regions from the control of the central government. But the point to be examined is what factors determine the success of these separatist movements?

The new Scottish Parliament, led by the new First Minister, John Swinney, supported holding a new independence referendum in the region on May 27. 72 representatives, including members of the Scottish National Party and the local Green Party, voted in favor of the plan. In contrast, representatives of the UK’s national parties, including Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, have expressed their opposition to the plan. They believe that the Scottish authorities have more urgent matters to deal with than holding a referendum.

However, in 2022, the UK Supreme Court confirmed that no referendum can be held without the consent of the central government. The new Scottish Parliament must also comply with this law. Therefore, the plan was not to hold a referendum, but to ask the UK government to grant it the power to hold a referendum. John Swinney has announced that he will continue to talk to London.

But the question is, who will he talk to? The UK government does not intend to have any talks. In 2025, the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, announced that there would be no referendum in Scotland as long as he is in office. London relies not only on laws but also on public opinion polls, which show that most Scots are currently opposed to independence. Although the difference in votes between those for and those against independence is only a few percentage points.

In addition to legal arguments, opponents of independence also point to economic arguments. Scotland is a subsidized region, and its budget deficit in 2024-2025 was about 11% of GDP. In the event of independence, Scotland's exports to the UK, which account for more than half of its exports, would be subject to tariffs, and it would be difficult to compensate for this market with the EU, which only accounts for 20% of Scotland's exports.

Supporters of independence hope that Scotland can return to the EU after leaving the UK. But this would require the consensus of all EU members. Spain, Belgium, and other countries with breakaway regions will oppose this, fearing similar sentiments for their regions (such as Catalonia and Flanders).

However, EU membership is not necessary for tariff-free trade with the EU. Norway and Switzerland are formally in the single market, with some exceptions, and Scotland could follow suit, so in that case, the attractiveness of independence from the UK will increase despite the crisis that has gripped London. The crisis is not just economic, but also political. It includes the British Prime Minister’s approval rating falling below 20%, and the options for his replacement.

John Swinney wants a referendum by 2029, before Nigel Farage’s “Reform” party with its nationalist agenda can come to power in the next UK general election. The fear of this is fuelling separatist sentiment not only in Scotland, but also in Wales and Northern Ireland.

If London's stubbornness continues, these regions' demands for independence may become more radical. Then, to prevent Farage and his party from winning, political parties may promise independence to the people of these regions on the eve of the next general election. After the relevant referendums are held, "Not-So-Great Britain" may become smaller than its current limited geography, or at least plunge into a much more severe political crisis than the current one.