New US Strategy Against Iran Passes Through China and the UAE
TEHRAN (Defapress) - After months of unsuccessful military campaigning, Washington has adopted a new strategy; this time, a strategy that is pursued not through direct military confrontation, but through the twists and turns of the financial, commercial, and logistical networks of third countries. Donald Trump’s official announcement of the launch of “the most unprecedented economic operation in the history of the confrontation with Iran” shows the White House’s determination to intensify the economic war. He has called for an immediate halt to oil purchases from Iran, the activities of front companies, money transfer channels, and any registration of ships that help Iran in any way. Although Trump did not name any country in his speech, the signs of his message are aimed more than anything at two key players: China and the UAE.
Over the past two decades, China has become the largest buyer of Iranian crude oil, and a significant part of Tehran’s foreign exchange earnings are provided through Chinese refineries. At a time when the United States is determined to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero, China is the only country that has both the capacity to purchase large volumes of oil and the political will to continue cooperating with Iran. But China’s main distinction lies not in the volume of purchases but in its multi-layered and complex financial mechanism; a network that includes the CPS interbank payment system as an alternative to SWIFT, the use of small regional banks outside international sanctions lists, the use of shell trading companies located in Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangdong, and the recording of transactions in the names of third countries to eliminate Iran’s footprint. The architecture is so carefully designed that the US Treasury Department has been unable to fully trace all its branches.
The reason Beijing insists on this cooperation goes beyond purely economic considerations. China has lost Venezuela as a major oil supplier in recent years, and billions of dollars in loans to Caracas have remained virtually uncollected. Therefore, Beijing does not want to miss the opportunity to partner with Iran. Moreover, from Beijing’s strategic perspective, Iran is not only an energy supplier, but also a geopolitical partner in the so-called “Silk Road”. For this reason, China is expected to move its purchases of Iranian oil to an even more secretive level, using unflagged tankers, frequently changing the names and ownership of ships, turning off tracking systems, and loading in small, unofficial ports to protect the “shadow fleet” from US pressure; a fleet that Washington has been trying to stop for years, but has so far failed.
Along with China, the UAE has also played an important role in protecting Iran’s economic arteries against US sanctions. Dubai has become a major hub for Iranian trade for decades; it is home to thousands of Iranian companies, handles the bulk of Iran’s imports, its network of small banks and money exchanges provides Tehran with a channel for money transfers, and a significant portion of Iran’s shadow navy is managed from here. Following Trump’s announcement, the UAE officially announced that it would “completely” cut off financial and trade relations with Iran, but the reality on the ground is that the bulk of transactions continue to flow through shell companies, money exchanges, small banks, and ships with unclear ownership. Many of these companies have multiple nationalities, making them virtually impossible for US regulators to fully trace.
On the other hand, the UAE rulers are well aware that strict implementation of Washington’s demands and the consequent loss of Iran as one of its most important trading partners could weaken Dubai’s position as a global trade center, reduce foreign investment flows, and undermine international companies’ confidence in the stability of the country’s laws. These concerns arise in a context where recent regional wars have also significantly damaged the UAE’s economic position. Therefore, the UAE is expected to take a middle path between the increasing pressure from the US and its strategic interests in maintaining its role as a regional trade hub, which, although seemingly in line with Washington’s wishes, will not lead to the complete closure of Iran’s trade openings in practice.
On the other hand, Tehran sees these threats as a continuation of the same policy of so-called “economic terrorism” and believes that Trump is trying to hide the debt crisis and domestic problems of the United States behind this volume of pressure and sanctions. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi recently emphasized that the experience of more than four decades of sanctions has designed Iran’s trade and financial networks in a way that can absorb new pressures. For this reason, instead of retreating, Tehran will pursue the path of increasing global costs for the United States; one of the most important ways of this cost increase is to further restrict shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, increase the risk of oil transportation, and raise global energy prices, which could put the US economy under additional pressure on the eve of the sensitive elections.
It is noteworthy that American media, including NBC News, have recorded about 32 to 38 cases of Trump declaring the end of the conflict or victory over Iran in recent years; a cycle that has usually been accompanied by a short period of calm, a declaration of victory, a return to tension, and the beginning of a new round of pressure. This recurring pattern shows that Washington’s maximum pressure strategy has not only failed to achieve its ultimate goal, but has also led to Iran creating a more complex and impenetrable architecture of financial and commercial networks each time. In such circumstances, the role of China as a strategic oil customer and the UAE as a logistics hub, the two main sides of this complex economic and geopolitical equation, is more prominent than ever.
