Arab Emirates Is on the Path to Disintegration and Regime Change
TEHRAN (Defapress) - The newly established country of the United Arab Emirates, comprising seven sheikhdoms including Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Fujairah, Ras Al Khaimah, Ajman, and Umm Al Quwain, has faced a kind of power imbalance since its very inception; one in which the two sheikhdoms of Abu Dhabi and Dubai have effectively held the reins of major decision-making, leaving the other emirates on the margins. This imbalance, coupled with historical disputes with Iran and inflammatory rhetoric regarding the three islands in the Persian Gulf, has laid the groundwork for approaches that have gradually placed this country on a path toward regime change and disintegration.
In recent years, particularly after the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, the process of malicious acts and treacheries by the ruling regime of the UAE towards Iran and the people of the region entered a new phase. Abu Dhabi's frantic rapprochement with the Zionist regime and the expansion of security and military cooperation transformed the UAE from a commercial hub into an actor with high-risk security roles. Over time, through persistent sycophantic overtures to the Zionist regime, the UAE turned itself into Israel's proxy force in the Persian Gulf. This process, which also coincided with deeper convergence with the United States, effectively exposed the UAE to direct tensions and high costs; the imprudent behavior of this regime, fully aligning its intelligence and military apparatus with the US and Israel, and playing entirely on the US-Israel team, led Iran to a comprehensive reconsideration of its relationship with this country and the adoption of newer decisions.
Following these developments and during Iran's regional war, the Iranian Armed Forces carried out their most extensive attacks against the UAE, and the UAE's infrastructure was targeted by the most severe strikes. According to UAE admissions, nearly 4,000 missiles and drones struck various parts of the country. Dozens of hotels, bases, and industrial centers were hit, and hundreds of points within this country's limited geography sustained damage. Key industries, including the aluminum industry, artificial intelligence facilities, and banking systems, have faced destruction. This situation has been described as so critical that, for an extended period, ship entry into UAE ports was disrupted.
As this process continued, the folly combined with the envy of the UAE's ruler signed the death warrant for this regime. A limited and cowardly attack by the UAE's mercenary air force on the islands of Sirri and Lavan was met with deadly fire from Iran, plunging the UAE's fantasy economy into an eternal slumber. In this response, 23 missiles and 40 drones struck the Habshan oil field. In a meaningful act, the Iranian Armed Forces did not carry out any attacks on oil fields located in Dubai, limiting their destruction to the Habshan oil field. Meanwhile, other infrastructure, such as oil wells, pipelines, and loading facilities in the port of Fujairah, did not remain immune from the consequences of these conflicts. The scale of destruction at the Habshan oil field, which supplied 80% of the UAE's oil, was so immense that it led to the country's withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+. This decision was made not to exit OPEC's supervisory umbrella, but due to Abu Dhabi's sheer inability to fulfill its obligations towards OPEC.
On the other hand, attempts to conceal the actual volume of oil production capacity following these developments have been cited among the motives for leaving the regulatory mechanisms of OPEC and OPEC+. This action itself demonstrates the depth of the crisis and the fear of revealing on-the-ground realities in the energy sector.
In the economic sphere, the core pillars of the UAE's development have faced unprecedented challenges. The three mainstays of this country's economy, construction, oil revenues, and the tourism industry, have all been completely devastated by the attacks of the Iranian Armed Forces. The tourism and aviation industry, once a key advantage of the UAE, has faced complete shutdown following Iran's attacks on the UAE and the decline in international confidence. The geographical limitations of this small country and the security conditions have altogether ruled out any recovery for this sector.
Alongside these issues, internal rifts among the emirates are reported to be widening. Some local rulers hold Abu Dhabi's policies responsible for the current situation and criticize the adopted approaches. Disputes between Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, ruler of Dubai, and Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, ruler of Abu Dhabi and president of the UAE, are cited as one of the main axes of these tensions, and signs of dissatisfaction have also been reported in other emirates, including Ras Al Khaimah and Sharjah. Sheikh Sultan bin Muhammad Al Qasimi, the very conservative ruler of Sharjah who maintains close ties with the Saudi monarchs, is dissatisfied with the UAE's foreign policy and Israel's dominance over the country. There are even rumors about this emirate's intention to secede from the UAE; these rumors have become so prominent that a US-based betting platform highlighted the issue by creating a market to predict the probability of Sharjah's secession by May 31, 2026.
At the regional level, the UAE's standing in the public opinion of Muslim countries has declined. Reports have emerged of popular reactions in some Islamic countries, including Sudan, Somalia, and Algeria, and their support for Iran's severe attacks on the UAE, indicating a shift in perception regarding the UAE's role in Iran's regional war.
The sum of these developments presents a picture of a country that, through imprudent choices, has brought upon itself a series of simultaneous crises in the security, economic, and political spheres. It appears that regime change and disintegration in the UAE are not merely a possibility but a necessity, and the imprudent decisions of the Zayed family have rendered them an extraneous element in the political geography of West Asia.
